Heavy rains are forecast to increase by the end of the year due to La Nina

A heavy rain causes a wash out of a section of local road in the northern city of Hải Phòng in June. — VNA/VNS Photo Hoàng Ngọc

HÀ NỘI — The National Centre for Hydro-meteorological Forecasting has forecast that due to La Nina, there will be an even greater risk of heavy rainfall, storms and floods in the last months of this year, particularly in the central region.

According to the usual pattern, the annual rainy and storm season occurs from July to December. The centre has identified this year rainy and storm season as particularly complex and unpredictable.

Mai Văn Khiêm, director of the centre, said the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) status was currently neutral.

From the end of July to September, there would be a 65-75 per cent chance of transitioning to La Nina. Between October and December, the probability of La Nina would increase to 70-90 per cent. Therefore, the likelihood of La Nina occurring would become higher towards the end of the year.

“From now until the end of the year, there will be 10-12 storms and tropical low-pressure system in the northern part of the East Sea, with about 5-7 directly affecting Việt Nam,” he said.

“We cannot rule out the possibility of strong storms in the East Sea.”

When storms appear in the East Sea, they develop rapidly and are very difficult to predict, posing challenges for storm prevention and control.

Additionally, from September to November, rainfall in the northern region would increase by about 10-30 per cent compared to the same period in previous years.

From July to September, the rainfall in the central region would be 10-20 per cent higher than in previous years during the same period.

From October to December, the rainfall was expected to increase by 20-40 per cent compared to the average of previous years during the same period.

Consequently, heavy rains would be concentrated towards the end of the year, especially in the central region, increasing the risk of prolonged flooding, widespread inundation, flash floods and landslides in the region, he said.

In response to the situation, the centre would strictly obey Decision No. 18/2021/QĐ-TTg, dated April 22, 2021, by the Prime Minister, which stipulated disaster forecasting, warning and communication of disaster risk levels and the operational procedures for multi-reservoir operations in 11 river basins nationwide.

Alongside this, the centre would rigorously adhere to the regulations on the technical procedures for forecasting and warning dangerous meteorological and hydrological phenomena to serve the direction of the National Steering Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control, its Standing Office and relevant agencies at all levels to minimise disaster damage.

The centre would also ensure the stable operation of information technology systems and auxiliary forecasting equipment, provide timely weather and hydro-meteorological information on its website at nchmf.gov.vn and on its mobile application.

They are focusing on improving quantitative rainfall forecasting, enhancing the exploitation and use of observational data sources such as satellites, radar, automatic rain gauges and forecasting information sources, increasing the application of new, modern technologies (artificial intelligence and machine learning) in quantitative rainfall forecasting. — VNS