Vietnam have 8% chance to make it past World Cup group stage

Vietnam are 8% likely to make it past the group stage and advance to the round of 16. This probability is higher than the Philippines (7%), Jamaica (5%), South Africa (5%), Nigeria (4%), Panama (4%), Haiti (3%), Morocco (1%) and Zambia (1%).

The supercomputer also predicted that if Vietnam made it to the round of 16, their chance of advancing to the quarterfinals is 2%. Vietnam and eight teams above have zero chance of getting to the semifinals.

Gracenote supercomputer’s predictions of the chance to get past the group stage of each team in the 2023 Women’s World Cup. Photo by Nielsen

In addition, Portugal, Ireland, Argentina, Colombia and Costa Rica have no chance of playing the final. Hosts New Zealand and Switzerland have very little chance to play the final and zero chance of winning the title, according to the predictions.

Vietnam are not expected to progress far in their first Women’s World Cup tournament, having been drawn in group E with defending champions the United States, previous runners-up Netherlands, and Portugal.

The U.S., who won the last two consecutive titles, have the highest probability of lifting the trophy with 18%, followed by Sweden and Germany on 11%, and France 9%. Japan are the Asian team with the highest probability of winning – 3%.

Gracenote also predicted the line-up for the two semifinals, which will be the U.S. versus Sweden and France against Germany. The final will likely be between the U.S. and Germany, with a 54% win rate for the defending champions.

Gracenote supercomputer’s predictions of the match-ups after the group stage. Photo by Nielsen

Vietnam will play their first match, against the U.S., on July 22. The team have a 1.2% probability of winning and 3% of drawing, as calculated by sports site Oddspedia. In the group stage of the 2019 World Cup, the U.S. defeated Thailand 13-0.

After playing the U.S., Vietnam will face Netherlands on July 27 and Portugal on August 1.