Việt Nam’s seafood exports forecast to recover slightly in H1

The shrimp oversupply may continue through the first half of 2024 as world shrimp production in the year is forecast to increase by 4.8 per cent to 5.9 million tonnes. — Photo congthuong.vn

HÀ NỘI — The Việt Nam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) forecasts Việt Nam’s seafood exports in the first half of 2024 will recover slightly compared to last year’s low base.

According to VASEP, given global economic difficulties and high interest rates, consumers will not be really strong in their spending decisions, and global seafood consumption demand is unlikely to increase sharply.

It urged businesses to make efforts to expand markets as Việt Nam’s seafood exports to the US, the European Union (EU) and South Korea are likely to recover in the first months of this year.

Demand for seafood tends to recover, but customers still focus on products in the lower price segment such as canned fish, raw fish for processing canned fish, dried fish and dried shrimp. The price reduction of many aquatic species may continue until the end of the first half of 2024, Lê Hằng, VASEP’s communications director, said.

According to Hằng, Vietnamese shrimp will continue to compete with Ecuador and India in terms of price and supply because these two countries are trying to increase market share in the US, China, EU and Japan, increasing exports of processed shrimp, although their proportion is still modest.

The shrimp oversupply may continue through the first half of 2024 as world shrimp production in the year is forecast to increase by 4.8 per cent to 5.9 million tonnes.

The IUU yellow card continues to be a challenge for seafood exports. If it is not removed in 2024, it will cause exports to the EU to stagnate because exporters will meet difficulties in applying for certificates for exploited seafood. Tuna, squid, octopus and marine fish are the most affected commodities.

However, pangasius exports are optimistic as the inventories of this product in the US, China and EU markets have decreased significantly. Pangasius export prices will increase again in these markets.

In addition to frozen fillets, the trend of importing deeply processed and value-added products from pangasius, such as fish maw and pangasius patties, continues to increase.

Vietnamese businesses may also increase import of raw materials for processing export products to Japan and the US.

VASEP forecasts that Việt Nam’s seafood exports will gradually recover in 2024 and become more positive in the second half of the year. The industry’s export revenue is expected to reach US$9.5-$10 billion this year.

The shrimp industry aims to achieve the target of $4 billion, pangasius at about $1.9 billion, and the remaining seafood products are forecast to earn about $3.6-3.8 billion.

It is estimated that by the end of December 2023, total seafood production increased by 2 per cent year-on-year to 9.3 million tonnes. Seafood export turnover in 2023 was at about $9.2 billion, including $3.45 billion from shrimp exports, $1.9 billion from pangasius, $800 million from molluscs and $900 million from tuna. — VNS