Supercomputer predicts Man City as strongest contender for next Premier League title

Through 10,000 simulations ran by Opta’s supercomputer, the possibility of Man City winning the championship is up to 82.2%, while the chance of them finishing second and third are 13.8% and 3.5%. Pep Guardiola’s team has only a 0.4% chance of finishing fourth.

In the 2023-2024 season, Man City made history as the first team to win the Premier League four times in a row, surpassing the records of Huddersfield Town (1924-1926), Arsenal (1933-1935), Liverpool (1982-1984) and Man Utd (1999-2001, 2007-2009).

According to Opta’s simulation, Arsenal have a 48.8% chance of finishing as runner-up and a 12.2% chance of winning the title to break Man City’s dominance. In the last two seasons, Mikel Arteta’s team have taken the lead at times, but ran out of steam in the decisive stage and lost the title to Man City.

Liverpool have a 40.2% chance of finishing third and only a 5.1% chance of winning the title.

The battle for Champions League qualification is expected to be exciting, with four teams separated by only 8%. Chelsea are the favorites with a 19.5% chance of finishing fourth – compared to Newcastle’s 17.5%, Man Utd’s 12.9% and Tottenham’s 11.8%.

Man Utd are one of the three clubs that have the probability of finishing in all 20 positions according to Opta’s simulations. According to the supercomputer, the Red Devils have a 0.3% chance of finishing 18th and get relegated.

At the bottom of the table, Opta predicts that the three newly promoted teams will only stay in the Premier League for one season. Southampton have a 28.6% chance of finishing at the bottom of the table, compared to 27.4% for Ipswich and 23.4% for Leicester City.

Opta is the world’s leading football statistics and data company. Based on the strength index of clubs and national teams, they use a supercomputer to simulate the results of a tournament tens of thousands of times, to calculate the probability. The strength index of the teams can change every day, based on the results of the matches.

Former England and Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher has the same prediction when he thinks that Man City will extend their record of winning the Premier League five times in a row, while Arsenal will finish as runner-up for the third consecutive season. Carragher also predicts that his former club Liverpool will have a successful first season under new manager Arne Slot and finish third.

According to the 46-year-old commentator, Tottenham will finish fourth, just above Man Utd, while Aston Villa, the club that have qualified for the Champions League this season, will drop to sixth.

The opening match of the 2024-2025 Premier League will take place on Aug. 17, when Man Utd host Fulham at Old Trafford. The highlight of round one will be the clash between Chelsea and Man City at Stamford Bridge on Aug. 18.