Real estate market is expected to recover in H2

The Government has made many decisions to help solve difficulties of the real estate market to solve obstacles related to capital and legal procedures for property projects.

Economist Can Van Luc, a member of the National Monetary and Financial Policy Advisory Council, said we’ll need to wait until the fourth quarter of 2023 to see a clearer path for recovery of the property market, as policies issued to remove obstacles in the market will take time to have real impacts.

According to Luc, in the second half of 2023, it is still necessary to speed up the review and have solutions to continue removing problems of real estate projects; and accelerate the disbursement of public investment, the implementation of rehabilitation programs, and the development of social housing and housing for workers. Authorities also need to focus on regulating supply and demand in the real estate market.

In addition to stipulating the classification of real estate segments to have appropriate credit, capital and financial policies, the management agency needs to have a suitable tax schedule and promote non-cash payments for real estate transactions.

Meanwhile, enterprises in the property sector need to have a specific and feasible plan to pay for mature corporate bonds, especially in the period of 2023-24.

Besides bank credit, there are many channels to mobilize capital, such as bonds, stocks, investment funds, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and finance leases, Luc said.

Assessing the market, Nguyen Vu, director of the New Home Real Estate Center, said that the market will have better performance in the fourth quarter of 2023 or in the second quarter of 2024 if the Government’s policies on supporting the real estate market have real impacts on the stakeholders in the market.

The market is still struggling with limited transaction volume and is waiting for better performance in the second half of 2024 thanks to policies and credit packages for developing social housing and housing for workers.

Pham Anh Khoi from the market research team of the Viet Nam Real Estate Brokers Association (VARS), said that there will be two scenarios for the real estate market in the second half of the year. Specifically, in the first scenario, if the real estate market remains in difficulties and investors’ confidence has not been restored, it is possible that capital will continue to stay in the banking system even though interest rates are at lower levels.

In the second scenario, if the deposit interest rates fall to 6-7% by the end of this year or even do not decrease, the capital from deposits will likely return to the real estate market when buyers’ confidence is improved./