Inflationary pressure to ease in 2024: Economists

A woman shops at a supermarket in HCM City. — VNA/VNS Photo Mỹ Phương

HÀ NỘI — Economists at a workshop in Hà Nội on Thursday shared the view that despite a host of difficulties forecast for 2024, inflation would not be a big issue for Việt Nam in the year.

Speaking at the workshop, jointly held by the Institute of Economics and Finance under the Academy of Finance and the Price Management Department at the Ministry of Finance, Deputy Director of the Institute Nguyễn Đức Độ explained that the world economy, especially the US and China, is expected to slow this year.

Given this, Việt Nam’s exports are projected to remain modest, he said. The struggling real estate market will adversely affect the entire economy and lead to low growth in the year.

Độ also set out several scenarios for the consumer price index (CPI) growth, the main gauge of inflation, ranging from 2.5 to 3.5 per cent.

Economist Định Trọng Thịnh said Vietnamese enterprises will optimise opportunities generated by free trade agreements (FTAs) and the economy would grow 5.5-6.5 per cent, with inflation hovering around 3.2-3.5 per cent.

Associate Professor Dr. Ngô Trí Long stressed that the inflation target of 4-4.5 per cent approved by the National Assembly would be possible thanks to the Government’s experience in price management, plus aggregate demand yet to show signs of rebound.

However, the factors that cause inflationary pressure still remain, but the outlook is better in a number of countries, reducing the once high CPI growth forecast due to service fee adjustments, heard the workshop.

The Price Management Department will also keep a close watch on economic developments and impacts of global inflation on Việt Nam to take appropriate solutions, while closely monitoring the domestic market to give policy consultation and flexible management scenarios.

Statistics show that Việt Nam’s CPI rose 3.25 per cent in 2023, much lower than the target of about 4.5 per cent.

Economists reported that the building of price management scenarios that match the reality is an important basis to control inflation. — VNS