Booms end in the blink of an eye, slumps prolong for property market

Data from investment consultancy Mogin Holdings shows that in 2008-2023, the market grew quickly for a total of five years, but there were 11 years of deceleration.

According to Cushman & Wakefield Vietnam, there are four real-estate cycles between 1993 and 2023 comprised of 10 good years and stagnation for the remaining 20.

Commenting on the last three decades, Trang Bui, executive director of Cushman & Wakefield Vietnam, said the quiet period is always two or three times longer than periods of hot growth.

She expected 2023 to be a difficult year for the property market, which can be seen as the final mark of the 10-year cycle.

The market is about to enter a new cycle in 2024 and could recover in the following years, she said.
CEO of Mogin Holdings, Luong Dinh Thuy Van, said every two years the market heats up, and 5-6 years later it hibernates.

Its booms and busts coincide with the economic cycle, she said.

She too said 2023 would be a challenging year with the market affected by the state of the global economy, legal issues related to property investment, supply and demand, and financing.

Nguyen Loc Hanh, CEO of Asia Gem Real Estate Investment Joint Stock Company, said it is difficult to make a proper assessment of a boom because there is often hot growth in isolated areas that ends within a few months before another locality goes through the same phenomenon.