Indonesia have 66% chance of making Asian Cup last 16: UK analytics firm

Two rounds of group matches have been played and five teams have already secured spots in the round of 16: Qatar, Australia, Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia.

Qatar and Iraq top groups A and D.

Based on the strength of the teams and possible results, Opta’s supercomputer calculated the probability of South Korea and Jordan qualifying at nearly 100%.

It estimated the UAE and Uzbekistan’s chances at 99.9%, Thailand’s at 99.8% and Japan’s at 98.9%, meaning only five spots are left for the remaining teams to compete.

Only two teams are certain of elimination: Vietnam and Malaysia. The two Southeast Asian teams have not won a single point and are sure to finish at the bottom of their groups, due to poor head-to-head results.

Vietnam play Iraq and Malaysia take on South Korea in their last games this week.

Hong Kong, Kyrgyzstan and India also lost their first two matches, but still have the chance to advance, with Opta rating them at 25.5%, 17.8% and 17.1%. They can no longer finish in the top two in their group and win an automatic spot, but can finish third and among the best losers.

Of the remaining teams, Bahrain have the best chance of progressing (89%) and Indonesia are second highest (66.4%).

Indonesia could lose to Japan and still advance though they need to avoid losing by a big margin.

Three other teams with a more than 50% chance of progressing are Oman, Tajikistan and Syria.

China finished third in Group A after failing to score in any of their three games and their chance of advancing is hanging by a thread.

Palestine are given only a 45.4% chance but only need to beat Hong Kong to qualify.

Lebanon are a 32.8% chance and have to beat Tajikistan in group A.

The Asian Cup is being played from Jan. 12 to Feb. 10 in Qatar with 24 teams divided into six groups of four.

The top two in each group and the four best third-placed teams will advance to the round of 16.

There is prize money of US$14.8 million on offer, with the champion receiving $5 million.

Vietnam get $200,000 for playing in the group stage.