HCM City economy to accelerate in H2, targeting 7.5% growth in 2024: report

New real estate developments in Thủ Đức City in HCM City. HCM City’s economy is likely to achieve growth of 7-7.5 per cent this year. — VNS Photo Bồ Xuân Hiệp

HCM CITY — HCM City’s economy is expected to accelerate in the second half and is likely to achieve growth of 7-7.5 per cent in 2024, according to a report.

According to the “HCM City Macroeconomic Report: Recovery and Challenges,” the city’s economy is forecast to continue to grow through out the year.

Reaching a growth target of 7 – 7.5 per cent this year is possible if the global economy continues to recover favourably.

Based on data from the first half of this year, the report indicated stable economic recovery in the country’s largest city.

HCM City’s Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) grew 6.46 per cent in the first half of the year, according to the report.

Total demand recovery has been seen in various indicators related to consumption, investment, and exports.

The major export markets for HCM City and Việt Nam as a whole, including the US and China, are expected to see significant growth in the second half, benefiting exports from both HCM City and Việt Nam.

However, these economies are also facing challenges that may hinder recovery, thereby posing potential risks to export activities.

Experts have also acknowledged the challenges facing the city, such as low credit growth and a slow recovery in the real estate market.

The city also fell short of its public investment disbursement target, with only VNĐ15 trillion disbursed in the first half, or 19 per cent of the set target instead of the expected 30 per cent.

The city is working to disburse VNĐ73 trillion, equivalent to 95 per cent of public investment, by year-end.

Recommendations

To achieve its growth target of 7-7.5 per cent for the year, experts recommended HCM City and Việt Nam as a whole promote domestic consumption and investment to increase total demand in order to reduce reliance on exports.

Diversifying export markets and expanding to new markets are also essential strategies to support production and business activities, they said.

They also recommended HCM City focus on high-tech and green industries.

The city’s index of industrial production (IIP) grew 5.6 per cent, the highest increase in the past three years.

The city saw a 10 per cent year-on-year increase in total retail sales of goods and services.

Its state budget collection was also a bright spot at more than VNĐ265 trillion in the period, up 16 per cent year-on-year.

The city saw a surge in foreign tourist arrivals, with nearly 2.7 million visitors in the period, up 38 per cent year-on-year and representing 44.6 per cent of the annual target.

It welcomed over 17 million domestic tourists, up 4.4 per cent year-on-year and making up 45 per cent of the yearly target.

Its tourism revenue saw a surge of 14.6 per cent.

Việt Nam reported 6.42 per cent year-on-year GDP growth in the first half.

The annual second report was published by the University of Economics of HCM City (UEH) in collaboration with the city’s Statistics Office.

The first report titled “HCM City Macroeconomic Report: 2023 Results and 2024 Forecast” was published at the end of last year. — VNS