El Nino to harshen next dry season: meteorologist

The influence of El Nino on Vietnam’s weather will grow stronger in the final months of this year and the beginning of next year, said Pham Thi Thanh Nga, deputy head of the Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment at the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment.

As a result, the upcoming dry season, which normally lasts from November to late April, in the Central Highlands and southern region, “is likely to be more severe,” Nga told VnExpress.

It means the two regions should prepare for drought and salt intrusion at more serious levels late this year and early next year.

The term El Nino (Spanish for ‘the Christ Child’) refers to a warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures, in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

Normally, it would last for 8-12 months but in some cases, it could stay for up to four years.

April and May were the period before the El Nino started to form, resulting in a rapid transition from cold to hot. There was a strong disturbance of ocean surface temperature, leading to forced changes in the atmosphere.

However, Nga said “the unusual heat in April-May in the country is not an impact of El Nino, but a result of the global warming effect.”

On May 6, Vietnam recorded its highest temperature ever, at 44.1 degrees Celsius.

Nga added that in Vietnam, the phenomenon should raise the average temperature in all regions as long as it is still active, which would lead to more heat waves with higher temperatures, a lack of rain, and more drought.

The Da River in northern Vietnam, which supplies water to the three largest hydropower dams in Vietnam and the largest in Southeast Asia, dries up in June 2023. Photo by VnExpress/Ngoc thanh

The U.S.’s National Weather Service announced on June 8 that “El Nino conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the northern hemisphere winter 2023-24.”

“A warming El Nino is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” said Petteri Taalas, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, in a statement in May.

“This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared,” he said.