China reopening to impact Vietnam economy from mid-2023: economists

“Around April or May, China will be more confident about its open-door policy, and this will creat opportunities for Vietnam’s export and tourism,” said Nguyen Xuan Thanh of Fulbright University Vietnam.

Nguyen Minh Cuong, ADB’s chief economist, said after the second quarter China’s reopening would affect the global economy, including Vietnam’s in various areas, including agriculture, services and trade.

Can Van Luc, chief economist of local bank BIDV, said the reopening is expected to push global GDP growth up by 0.1 percentage point, and Vietnam would also benefit from it

But the positive impact would not be immediate since China might experience policy “chaos” in the early stages, the economists agreed.

An important event would be the potential return of Chinese tourists to Vietnam in the second half of this year, helping drive economic growth, investment fund VinaCapital said.

Vietnamese airlines resumed regular flights to China on Jan. 8 after a long hiatus due to Covid-19.

Vietnamese exports to China have not been subjected to Covid testing since January 8.

The Vietnamese government has asked major agricultural producers and exporters to coordinate with authorities in northern border provinces to facilitate transport of export goods to China, especially fresh and frozen agricultural products.

Vietnam is China’s biggest trade partner in Southeast Asia and sixth biggest globally. China is Vietnam’s biggest partner. Bilateral trade had topped US$165.8 billion in 2021.