Cheap money period in Việt Nam forecast to come to an end

A bank teller counts money at a bank branch in Hà Nội. Deposit interest rates are expected to increase further in the context of increasing inflationary pressure from the third quarter of this year in the wake of salary increases and USD/VNĐ exchange rate differences. Photo vnbusiness.vn

HÀ NỘI — The period of cheap money is coming to end as deposit interest rates are increasing, causing lending interest rates next time to be difficult to maintain at the same low level as at the beginning of this year, experts forecast.

In June, 24 domestic commercial banks increased deposit interest rates.

In July, many banks continued to adjust up the rates such as Eximbank, NCB, SeABank, BaoVietBank and Saigonbank. Notably, some banks increased the rates for deposits under six months to 4.7 per cent per year, close to the cap of 4.75 per cent per year prescribed by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV).

Experts forecast deposit interest rates will increase further in the context of increasing inflationary pressure from the third quarter of this year in the wake of salary increases and USD/VNĐ exchange rate differences.

The expected recovery in credit demand thanks to positive prospects for the manufacturing industry and export activities will also lead to banks’ need to raise capital, which will cause deposit interest rates to continually increase at the end of the year.

Though the deposit interest rate is tending to increase gradually from the bottom, it is currently still lower than the average rate of 5.05 per cent per year before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) forecasts that deposit interest rates in the third quarter of 2024 will continue to increase by about 0.3-0.5 percentage points. The rising pressure may continue in the fourth quarter, pushing the rate up by 0.5-1 percentage point for the whole year.

Banking expert Nguyễn Trí Hiếu forecast deposit interest rates may continually increase in the second half of this year, which will cause lending interest rates to rise.

Hiếu said economic growth is stronger and individuals and enterprises are borrowing more from banks. This will push up the credit demand so banks are tending to increase interest rates to attract deposits to meet customers’ capital needs.

According to a bank leader, who declined to be named, though the Government has required commercial banks to reduce lending interest rates to support businesses and banks are still also keeping lending interest rates at a low level, banks see in the coming time, it is not easy for them to maintain interest rates like that in the first months of this year. Banks forecast the rates to be sideways or on an upward trend towards the end of the year.

The leader said looking ahead, his bank will make decisions based on forecasts of foreign exchange rates in the market. — VNS