Art market to recover from 2025, expert predicts

Sotheby’s first country head for Việt Nam Ace Lê. — Photo sggp.org.vn

The painting Người Hát Dân Ca (Les Chanteuses de Campagne) by Nguyễn Phan Chánh, one of Việt Nam’s leading modern artists, was auctioned for 1.02 million euros (US$1.09 million) at the Arts d’Asie auction on June 14 in Paris, France.

It was the first Vietnamese painting to be auctioned this year so far, according to Sotheby’s auction house.

The Sài Gòn Giải Phóng (Liberated Sài Gòn) newspaper reporter Thiên Thanh interviewed Ace Lê – a curator and researcher specialising in Vietnamese art – who is also Sotheby’s first country head for Việt Nam, about the current state of the art market.

Do you think that the successful auction of Nguyễn Phan Chánh’s Người Hát Dân Ca will help elevate the Vietnamese art market out of its current difficult situation?

The number of Vietnamese paintings worth millions of dollars peaked in the period 2020-21. In 2020, we had four works reaching the million dollar mark, it was the peak of the art market with nine works sold in 2021, there were only three in 2022, it dropped to two in 2023, and this year, only this one.

The recent stagnation in the price of high-end paintings reflects the current economic situation of the Asian region, and the world in general.

During this period, there are works for sale with high artistic value from China and Southeast Asia but prices have decreased by 20-50 per cent compared to the general level of a few years ago.

However, for collectors or investors who still have money, this is the ‘golden’ time for bottom fishing because the supply of the high-ending paintings will always be limited. When the economy recovers, demand will certainly exceed supply many times over and it will only be a matter of time before further price records are set.

The good news is that from 2019 until now, the market has had at least one million-dollar hammer transaction every year. This can be considered a positive signal in the context of general difficulties.

The Vietnamese painting market has grown steadily over the past 20 years and the current lull is a necessary period for the market to purge cases of devaluation and virtual valuation.

What are your predictions for the Vietnamese art market for the last two quarters of this year?

The high-end art market is inherently a luxurious segment and it is closely related to the rich people who are at the top of the economic pyramid. After major fluctuations in the domestic and international economies over the past two years due to the pandemic, perhaps from 2025 onwards, the Vietnamese painting market will begin to recover in line with the general economic growth forecasts.

Vietnamese auction records including Nguyễn Phan Chánh’s Người Hát Dân Ca and Mai Trung Thứ’s Chân Dung Cô Phượng (Portrait of Mademoiselle Phượng), which was highest price paid for Vietnamese art at $3.1 million, are lower than other Southeast Asian artists.

The Vietnamese art market still lags behind Indonesia or the Philippines in many ways, let alone Singapore or China. With the participation of both Vietnamese and regional collectors, I predict that Indochina paintings will continue to break their own price records.

It seems that there are not rare paintings by artists including Lê Phổ, Mai Trung Thứ, Lê Thị Lựu and Vũ Cao Đàm at the current auctions abroad. Is that right? And how about the domestic artists?

It is partially right. There is a big reason that overseas paintings are often much better preserved with clear origins, proper dating and trading information which are not difficult to verify.

Meanwhile, domestic paintings have been degraded and rotted over time because of the war. But the most important factor is that background information of the paintings are not continuous.

Chánh never went out of Việt Nam but his painting, Người Hát Dân Ca, was kept well in a good condition by a French countryside family for nearly a century. It is an important reason for the painting auction price being over one million dollars.

What do you think about paintings by artists in war time? If there is potential for them to reach million dollars auction in future?

In fact, the majority of liquidity in the Vietnamese art market is still concentrated in the artists who studied at the Indochina Fine Art College in the period of 1925-45.

These paintings have passed the test of time, so their value has been proven. Every time an Indochina painting breaks a record price, it gets a lot of attention from the media and public. It reinforces the desire to own one of them among the country’s elite customers.

Across the region southeast Asian collectors are very fond of the paintings at this period because they also shared a colonial history with Việt Nam.

Collectors from China, Japan and South Korea like the aesthetic of them because they combine western and orientation factors of fine arts.

Some of the paintings by the war-time artists and modern artists such as Trần Lưu Hậu, Nguyễn Trung and Đặng Xuân Hòa have been appeared in current international auctions.

In my opinion, the group of painters from the Indochina art college will still make record price. However, the appearance of new names in next ten to 20 years is a natural trend.

There are outstanding artists but their paintings have not received the attention they deserve, but I believe that their paintings will be revealed in the coming time.

Among them are French artists in Indochina or artists from the Gia Định Fine Arts School in the South of Việt Nam. This school was established in 1923 earlier than Indochina Fine Arts School in the North. VNS