Global airline passenger traffic expected to double in 20 years

The projected surge in traffic could put further pressure on carriers to contribute to the fight against climate change and make progress towards a pledge to reach “net zero” carbon emissions by 2050.

Average annual passenger growth is expected to be 3.6 percent a year to 2043, compared with a forecast of 9.7% growth this year, the International Air Transport Association said in its latest update.

The Asia Pacific region would lead with average growth of 4.8%, propelled by countries like India (6.9%) and China (5.8%) but also Thailand and Vietnam (6.4% each), the IATA said.

Passenger growth in Africa and the Middle East would rise by 3.6%, while Latin American and the Caribbean would see a 2.9% increase.

The mature markets of North America and Europe would see growth of 1.7% and two percent, the association said.

Air transport currently accounts for less than three percent of global CO2 emissions, but is often in the firing line because it serves a minority of the world’s population.

Airlines are mainly betting on increased production of sustainable aviation fuels produced from renewable sources, expected to provide 65% of the industry’s “net zero” target for 2050.

But the technological challenges of producing such fuels at scale — they currently provide just 0.53% of airlines’ fuel consumption — are likely to require huge investments.